Bungled Risk Assessment and Tragic Road Trips

Having a daughter studying at Georgetown means I have a steady stream of interesting reading coming into my email box. Jackie loves studying in Washington DC. Here’s an excerpt from something Jackie just sent that is thought-provoking:

This is from her psychology textbook, Psychology: A Concise Introduction, Second Editionby Richard A. Griggs:

“Availability in memory also plays a key role in what is termed a dread risk. A dread risk is a low-probability, high-damage event in which many people are killed at one point in time. Not only is there direct damage in the event, but there is secondary indirect damage mediated through how we psychologically react to the event. A good example is our reaction to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Fearing dying in a terrorist airplane crash because the September 11 events were so prominent in our memories, we reduced our air travel and increased our automobile travel, leading to a significantly great number of fatal traffic accidents than usual. It is estimated that about 1,600 more people needlessly died in these traffic accidents (Gigerenzer, 2006). These lives could have been saved had we not reacted to the dread risk as we did. We just do not seem to realize that it is far safer to fly than to drive. National Safety Council data reveal that you are 37 times more likely to die in a vehicle accident than on a commercial flight.”

Comments

18 Replies to “Bungled Risk Assessment and Tragic Road Trips”

  1. Funny but true story after 9/11. I was on my way to New Orleans to have some fun gambling and enjoying the culinary scene. I got on my plane at Birmingham International in the great State of Alabama and I sat near the rear of the aircraft. For some reason every person on the plane was looking mortified. There was a group of 8 middle eastern men on the plane. By chance I was seated next to them and I admit I was a bit nervous. That was until one of them opened their mouth to exclaim in a South Alabama twang that ” They were gonna get their drink on and gamble their asses off”. I ended up talking to them and they said they were headed to the National Convenience store association in New Orleans that weekend. I thought sweet, I have new drinking buddies and gambling partners! So the whole plane had relaxed and everyone enjoyed the flight sine the potential terrorists were adopted southerners and like to party.

  2. I am sure the terrorists that masterminded the 9/11 attacks intended them to have a more far reaching impact then just that one day. Maybe they would get a chuckle in thier caves over the extra deaths they caused from traffic accidents. Another secondary consequence of the fear they produced was that we toppled two tyrannical governments and killed a large number of thier terrorist buddies in the process. They may not have predicted that secondary indirect damage either.

  3. Rick, great quote, which probably is even more true then it . Yet remember, this is opinion and may once more go over some folks heads. Left coaster and thankful. larry from springfield

  4. Environmental laws will kill thousands of additional people if gas mileage requirements go into effect. Lighter cars mean more tragedy when accidents happen. Millions more will be at risk should irresponsible liberals be allowed to rewrite the second amendment. Advances in medicine will dry up if government is allowed to dictate prescription prices as there will no motivation to make the investment necessary to bring new life saving products to market and recovering costs will be next to impossible. Of course reaction by our political class added to the panic. Who wants to take blame for not doing enough should another terrorist attack take place? You don’t need a psychology course to understand this but thank your daughter for the stimulating thought. I am sure others can add their government mischievousness to this list.

  5. Rick, with all your European travels I am sure you are aware of what country invented the automobile. Please inform your President as to the correct location. Every time he opens his mouth something ignorant pops out. Other nations will soon start hating us because of his ignorance.

  6. I think we are all looking for that safety net that doesn’t exist. I know my self with the recent airline crashes I start getting nervous about a plane trip in May to Costa Rica on Continental Airlines that in the last few months has had two crashes, comupter in New York and skid off the runway in Denver. But the bottom line is you can’t really control your fate, or you won’t be living!

  7. The timing of this entry couldn’t be better. On another list I belong to there is a person vilifying someone for wanting to do an elective surgery. His vilification (is that a word?) is based on the fact that he has suffered from necessary surgeries (including secondary infections, unmanageable pain and excessive scarring) and therefore elective surgery has unacceptable risks. Of course, the fact that he is a very negative person has nothing to do with how he responds to pain or stress. Rather he would never admit that might have something to do with it even though research has proven that people with more positive attitudes require less pain medication following surgery. I would imagine that people with a generally positive outlook on life would be less responsive to dread risk as well.

  8. As quickwitted as I am, it took me a few readings to get your pun, Ken. Good one! LOL! My captcha word is “slap.” Hmm, slap what?

  9. Okay then, a Google Duel: http://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/mysteries/auto.html As I said, the first “successful” auto. Not engine, not created but not produced, but first successful auto that was in regular production. You know: “Successful”. Hey, I can now turn the tables and use an old Republican campaign slogan they used when anyone criticized Bush: “Why do you hate America so much?”

  10. I drive about 100 times as much as I fly but I’m only 37 times as likely to die in an auto accident? Maybe I should be afraid of flying.

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