Cameron Hewitt, co-author of my Croatia & Slovenia guidebook, has shared a tour guide’s insight that may complement what you’ve heard on the news about Kosovo’s new independence. Here it is:
You might have heard that Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. Is this good news or bad news? It’s too early to tell.
If their independence takes hold, Kosovo will become the seventh country to emerge from the break-up of Yugoslavia. About nine out of every ten people in Kosovo are ethnically Albanian (and generally Muslim). Fewer than one in ten is Serb (a Slavic cousin of the Croats, Slovenes, and Bosniaks, and generally Orthodox Christian).
Why do the Serbs care what happens to Kosovo, with its tiny Serb population? It’s partly because they fear for the safety of the Serbs living in Kosovo, but it’s mostly because many of the important historic, cultural, and religious sites of the Serb people are in Kosovo. To put it into context, a Serb once told me, “Kosovo is the Mecca and the Medina of the Serb people.”
For most of the 20th century, Kosovo was considered part of Serbia, the largest constituent unit of Yugoslavia. But because Kosovo is such a political hot potato, the communist dictator Tito set it up as a semi-independent “autonomous province” within Serbia. That compromise didn’t last long.
The Yugoslav wars of the 1990s actually started in Kosovo in the 1980s, when the Albanians there began to push for more independence from Serbia. Serb strongman Slobodan Miloševic went to Kosovo to support the Serb minority, and made provocative statements implying Serb aggression toward Kosovo. This started a chain reaction that led to Serbia’s annexation of Kosovo, Slovenia and Croatia declaring independence from Yugoslavia, and a decade of fighting in the region.
After the Balkan Wars and the ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, it became a UN protectorate–still nominally part of Serbia, but for all practical purposes separate and self-governing (under the watchful eye of the UN).
The plan was always for Kosovo to eventually declare independence. But on Sunday, the provisional government unilaterally declared its independence without going through proper UN channels. (It had grown impatient that its UN bid for independence was being stalled by traditional Serb ally Russia.) So far, the Republic of Kosovo has been recognized by the US and most major European powers, but not officially endorsed by the UN. Key opponents include Russia, China, and Spain (which sees unsettling parallels between Kosovo and its own Basque region).
So, what now?
Pessimists fear that Kosovo’s declaration of independence will upset the delicate postwar balance of the Balkans; that militant Serbs will flock to Kosovo to fight to keep it as part of Serbia; and that it might even provoke the Serb half of Bosnia-Herzegovina to secede from the Bosniak/Croat half. Last summer a young Serb who lives in rural Bosnia-Herzegovina–well-educated, articulate, and Western-looking–told me, “Ninety percent of the people in this town have never been to Kosovo. But ninety percent of us will take up arms and fight to the death to defend it.” He acknowledged that he was one of those people. I shudder to think that he might be heading to Kosovo as we speak.
Optimists are holding their breath to see how the Serbs will fight Kosovo independence. The new Kosovo government has very carefully stated it will protect the rights of its minorities (read: Serbs), which is a good sign. (It was Croatia’s failure to respect its Serb population that partly sparked the war there.) And Serbia has said it will not take military action (but, then, much of the fighting of the 1990s was not “officially endorsed” by the government, either).
If Kosovo independence works, it will be the final chapter of a long and ugly Yugoslav succession, and everyone there can finally get on with their lives.
Stay tuned. And if you’re a religious person, now is the time to pray for peace in Kosovo.